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Hurricanes, Katrina, and Facts

August 31, 2015

By William O'Keefe

It was as predictable as sunrise that climate advocates would use the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina for propaganda purposes. And true to form, they did, including President Obama, even though he was asked by Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal not to do so.

Climate advocates use sea surface temperature increases to claim that hurricane activity in the Atlantic is bad and is going to get worse. Most of these predictions are based on models. Since we have learned, especially in the climate change debate, models can be manipulated to prove anything. So, instead of parsing through model equations and assumptions, someone interested in hurricanes could start with the data.

Professor William Gray, one of foremost experts on hurricanes, has demonstrated through his work that surface temperature is a factor but not the controlling factor. He demonstrated this conclusion by analyzing two fifty-year periods when average surface temperatures rose 0.4 degrees C. He found that fewer named hurricanes made landfall during the 1956-2005 period that during the 1900-1949 period. Research on hurricanes also indicates that there is a 60-year cycle in hurricane frequency—30 years above average frequency and 30 years below.

Read the full article at Economics 21: Hurricanes, Katrina, and Facts

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